报告题目：Biomarker variability in joint analysis for longitudinal and survival data （纵向和生存数据联合分析中指标变化率问题）

主讲人：潘建新教授（北京师范大学-香港浸会大学联合国际学院）

时间：2023年4月17日（周一）15:00 p.m.

地点：北院卓远楼305会议室

主办单位：统计与数学学院

摘要：The role of visit-to-visit variability of a biomarker in predicting related disease has been recently recognized in medical science. Existing measures of biological variability are criticized for being entangled with random variability resulted from measurement error or being unreliable due to a limited number of measurements for each individual. We propose a new measure to quantify the biological variability of a biomarker by evaluating the fluctuation of each individual-specific trajectory behind longitudinal processes. Given a mixed-effects model for longitudinal data with the mean function over time specified by cubic splines, the proposed variability measure can be expressed mathematically as a quadratic form of random effects. A Cox-type model is proposed for time-to-event data by incorporating the defined variability as well as the current level of the underlying longitudinal trajectory as covariates, which constitutes the joint modelling framework. Asymptotic properties of maximum likelihood estimators are established for the new joint model. Parameter estimation is implemented via an EM algorithm with fully exponential Laplace approximation to reduce the computation burden due to the increasing dimension of random effects. Simulation studies are conducted to reveal the advantage of the joint modelling method over the two-stage method. We apply the proposed model to investigate the effects of systolic blood pressure variability on cardiovascular events by analyzing an elderly trial data, which motivates actually this research work.Joint work with Dr Chunyu Wang of Cambridge University of the UK.

主讲人简介：

潘建新教授是北京师范大学-香港浸会大学联合国际学院的首席教授。

潘建新教授的研究方向包括统计建模、统计学习和数据科学，并将其应用于医学、公共卫生、金融和工业，在统计学和多学科研究领域的期刊上发表了130多篇学术论文，在Springer出版社出版了3本专著，曾多次主持英国和欧洲各研究委员会的基金项目。潘教授是英国皇家统计学会会员、国际统计研究协会成员和艾伦·图灵数据科学与人工智能研究所会员。他是英国皇家统计学会在曼彻斯特分部的主席，并长期担任一些统计期刊的副主编，包括“Biometrics”（2008-2018）、“Biostatistics and Epidemiology”（2013-）、“Biometrical Journal”（2016-）、“Journal of Multivariate Analysis”（2019-）和“Electronic Journal of Statistics”（2022-）。